What does Iceland’s “No” vote mean for the EU’s enlargement policy?
Iceland won’t reopen EU membership negotiations after 58.2 percent voted against in Saturday’s referendum. Does this challenge whether the EU can still attract stable, wealthy democracies for reasons beyond finances?
On Saturday, Icelanders were called to the polls to vote on whether the country should resume negotiations to join the European Union. 52.8 per cent voted “No” and the government has no official mandate to go back to the negotiation table.
Unlike other candidate countries, where membership depends on deep institutional reforms, Iceland’s case is different. It is a wealthy, stable country that aligns closely with EU democratic values and principles.
“In the previous accession process, 27 of 35 negotiating chapters were opened and 11 were provisionally closed. Moreover, through the EEA and Schengen, Iceland already applies a substantial part of EU legislation and is deeply integrated into the Single Market”, said Christine Leuchtenmüller, Head of Regional Programme Nordic Countries at the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung.
However, according to Leuchtenmüller, Saturday’s outcome “primarily reflect[s] Iceland’s particular political and economic circumstances” and should not “allow for broader conclusions about EU enlargement”.
Iceland's vote also questions the EU’s wider security outlook, especially as the bloc depends more on enlargement to boost its global influence and security. This approach has become more critical following Russia’s war in Ukraine, strained relations with Washington, and conflicts in the Middle East.
Reasons for accession
Accession negotiations with Iceland would have moved quickly as the island already implements much of EU law. “In the previous accession process, 27 of 35 negotiating chapters were opened and 11 were provisionally closed. Through the European Economic Area and Schengen, Iceland already applies a substantial part of EU legislation and is deeply integrated into the Single Market”, said Leuchtenmüller.
For PM Kristrún Frostadóttir’s government, reopening accession talks was a flagship initiative. The intention was to build a better security shield and economic anchor for Iceland. Reasons included economic pressures, such as inflation peaks of 10.2 per cent and interest rates at 9.25 per cent, and urgent security threats from Arctic instability and diplomatic frictions over Greenland. Adopting the euro and entering the EU Customs Union would have lowered living costs and helped its defence and sovereign interests.
“Icelanders did not vote against Europe; they voted against redundancy. When a country already has the single market, Schengen and open borders, the marginal value of a seat must outweigh shared control of its core resource”, said MEP Mika Aaltola from the European People’s Party (EPP) and shadow rapporteur in the European Parliament of the report on the EU’s diplomatic strategy and geopolitical cooperation in the Arctic.
Ukraine and Moldova also mainly consider EU membership a security choice. Russia’s invasion made EU accession key for Ukraine’s future, while Moldova faces Russian interference and pressure of its own. Both became official candidates in 2022, formally opened accession negotiations in 2024, and have since moved through the process in parallel.
Membership would give both countries access to the full EU single market and potentially billions in European funding for modernisation, infrastructure and, particularly for Ukraine, reconstruction.
Meanwhile, Montenegro and Albania are currently the frontrunners. Montenegro has been negotiating since 2012 and already opened all 33 policy areas, while Albania, a candidate since 2014, accelerated its negotiations in recent years. For both, membership promises greater investment and access to EU funding and markets. The accession process is also designed to drive domestic reforms, particularly on corruption, judicial independence and the rule of law.
Candidates Serbia, North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina also see membership as a route towards greater economic development and political stability, but their paths have been slower. Serbia has been negotiating with Brussels for more than a decade, but its relationship with Kosovo, concerns over democratic standards and its continued ties with Russia complicate progress.
North Macedonia faces obstacles such as disputes with neighbouring EU members, and Bosnia and Herzegovina still needs significant institutional and rule-of-law reforms. For all three, accession means access to a market of around 450 million people, greater investment and a stronger political position within Europe.
The most complicated cases are Georgia and Turkey. Georgia became an official candidate in 2023, but its accession process has stalled amid EU concerns over democratic backsliding and the direction of its government, despite strong historical public support for European integration. Turkey has been a candidate since 1999 and began negotiations in 2005, making it the longest-running candidate, but its talks have been frozen for years because of concerns over democracy, fundamental rights and the rule of law, as well as disputes involving Cyprus.
Does enlargement benefit the EU?
For the EU, enlargement matters most for security and geopolitical influence, particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Bringing neighbouring countries closer to the bloc reduces border instability and limits the influence of powers such as Russia and China in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans.
Ukraine and Moldova are particularly important to this strategy because of their position on the EU’s eastern flank. Integrating the Western Balkans would bring a region surrounded largely by EU member states more firmly into European political and security structures.
A larger bloc would also represent a bigger market and population and could strengthen Europe’s negotiating power on trade, foreign policy, energy and security at a time of growing competition between the United States, China and Russia.
On the economic side, new members would increase the size of the EU’s single market, creating new opportunities for trade and investment and helping connect European transport, energy and supply networks. The Western Balkans, for example, are important transit routes between different parts of the continent and could play a greater role in European energy and infrastructure networks.
Enlargement is also designed to promote democratic and institutional reforms in countries seeking membership. Candidates must meet EU standards on the rule of law, judicial independence, fundamental rights and the fight against corruption and organised crime before they can join.
This gives Brussels leverage to encourage reforms beyond its current borders and, in turn, can strengthen the EU’s own security by improving cooperation on issues such as migration, border management and cross-border crime.
How can a country join the EU?
EU membership is a merit-driven process that requires countries to align with EU values and legislation. Any country can apply to join the EU, but it must first meet the 1993 Copenhagen criteria. These include stable and democratic institutions; respect for the rule of law and human rights; a functioning market; and the ability to take on the obligations of membership, including implementing the full body of European law. Negotiations formally begin once these conditions are met. Then the EU Commission and the EU Council grant the country candidate status.
The Commission starts with a screening process to determine how well the candidate is prepared. Then it must implement EU law, and where necessary, make reforms across 35 policy areas (called “chapters”) divided into six thematic clusters. These include the fundamentals (such as justice, public administration, economic functioning, and fundamental rights), internal market, competitiveness, green agenda, agriculture and cohesion, and external relations. The last two chapters, "institutions” and "other issues", include matters which come up during the negotiations but are not covered by any other chapter.
Chapters are opened individually and provisionally closed once the Commission and the Council consider that the country has made sufficient progress and implemented enough reforms.
Once all chapters are concluded, the Commission decides whether the country is ready to become a member of the EU, followed by the Parliament and the EU Council’s final green light. Upon a positive decision, the member states and the candidate country sign and ratify the accession treaty.
Negotiations can take years, although the Commission wants to speed up the process, depending on the candidate’s reforms and political stability. They are also lengthy as each step requires unanimous agreement from all member states. Hungary, for example, has blocked Ukraine's progress for years, despite receiving candidate status in 2022.
Out of the seven candidate countries, Montenegro is the frontrunner, with all chapters opened and 18 provisionally closed. Albania has opened all chapters and closed three, followed by Serbia, which opened 22 chapters and closed two. Moldova and Ukraine opened the fundamentals and external relations chapters, while North Macedonia is still in the screening process. Negotiations with Turkey stalled in 2018.
