São Paulo stock exchange surges after Flávio Bolsonaro election result

Published on 05/10/2026 - 18:24 GMT+2•Updated 18:27

Brazil woke up today not only to a new political reality, with two presidential candidates heading to a run-off in which Flávio Bolsonaro has the advantage, but also to a rise on the stock exchange.

On the back of Flávio Bolsonaro's showing in last Sunday's vote, with 47% of ballots cast, the Ibovespa index (IBOV), the main gauge of the performance of shares on Brazil's leading stock exchange (B3), climbed 8%. On Friday it had also closed higher, up 2.46%.

According to some experts, the rally is linked to the fact that the lead of former president Jair Bolsonaro's son, which had not been widely expected, increases the chances of a victory that would open up a new fiscal and economic scenario for the country.

Among Flávio Bolsonaro's pledges are the abolition of taxes, measures to rein in public debt and the privatisation of dozens of state-owned companies.

Analysts at BTG Pactual, Latin America's largest investment bank, say a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro on 25 October could push B3 shares up by as much as 45%.

The Brazilian real also strengthened over the course of the day, trading at 4.98 reais to the dollar, compared with 5.22 recorded on Friday.

Although inflation has been brought under control and the unemployment rate has hit a historic low during Lula da Silva's third term, Brazilians complain of a loss of purchasing power.

Flávio Bolsonaro, of the far-right Liberal Party, took more than 56 million votes (47.03%), while left-wing candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured the backing of almost 53.9 million voters (45.16%).