Ukraine war briefing: Duelling ceasefires as Zelenskyy floats open-ended truce

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has offered a potentially open-ended ceasefire beginning on Wednesday to Vladimir Putin, whose defence ministry has demanded that hostilities should cease for Friday and Saturday so that Russia can mark the anniversary of the second world war defeat of Nazi Germany, 81 years ago.

The Russian defence ministry threatened that if its truce demand was not met there would be a “massive missile strike on the centre of Kyiv” – adopting a tone akin to Donald Trump’s recent threats to attack Iranian civilian infrastructure, in what has been condemned as a potential war crime. Its follows a familiar pattern of unilateral ceasefire declarations by the Russian side – most recently around Orthodox Easter – that have had little to no impact.

Zelenskyy initially responded that the Russian request was “not serious”, later following up that while Kyiv had not received any official requests for a truce, in the time left until midnight on Wednesday “it is realistic to ensure” that a ceasefire takes effect. “We announce a regime of silence starting from 00.00 on the night of May 5 to May 6.” He gave no end time but said Ukraine would “act symmetrically” according to Russian actions. Noting that Russia had failed to respond to Kyiv’s longstanding calls for a lasting ceasefire, he urged the Kremlin “to take real steps to end their war, especially since Russia’s defence ministry believes it cannot hold a parade in Moscow without Ukraine’s goodwill”.

This year, the parade in the Russian capital is scheduled to take place without tanks, missiles and other military equipment for the first time in nearly two decades. Speaking at a summit with European leaders in Armenia on Monday, Zelenskyy said that the Russian authorities “fear drones may buzz over Red Square” on 9 May. “This is telling. It shows they are not strong now, so we must keep up the pressure through sanctions on them.”

High global oil prices will not help boost Russian economic growth this year as Ukrainian drone attacks and western sanctions affect crude output and exports, the influential thinktank TsMAKP, which is close to the Russian government, has predicted. “This year, a reduction in exports from Russia is expected compared to 2025,” analysts wrote as TsMAKP cut its forecast for gross domestic product growth. “The main considerations were the risks of reduced production and, consequently, exports of hydrocarbons from Russia due to new attacks on port infrastructure and oil refineries.”

TsMAKP cut the GDP growth forecast for this year to between 0.5% and 0.7% from 0.9% and 1.3% one month ago. The government is officially forecasting 1.3% but officials have said this is optimistic and will be revised. New government forecasts are expected later this month. Russia’s economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, its first quarterly contraction since early 2023. Russia was forced to reduce oil output in April due to Ukrainian drone attacks on ports and refineries – what Kyiv calls “kinetic sanctions” – as well as a halt to crude supplies through the only remaining Russian oil pipeline to Europe, according to a Reuters report last month.

A Russian missile attack killed seven people and wounded more than 30 in the town of Merefa, in Ukraine’s north-eastern Kharkiv region, Ukrainian officials said on Monday. Regional prosecutors said Russian forces appeared to have used an Iskander-type ballistic missile. The governor of the southern Zaporizhzhia region, Ivan Fedorov, said a Russian strike killed a husband and wife in the village of Vilnyansk and their adult son was wounded in the strike, along with three other people. In Russia, the governor of the Belgorod region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said a Ukrainian drone killed a civilian resident in a border area and wounded seven others, including a 10-year-old boy. Two people were injured when a Russian drone hit an apartment building in Brovary, Kyiv region, said the head of the regional military administration.

Keir Starmer has said the benefit of joining the European Union’s £78bn loan scheme for Ukraine “outweighs the cost”, writes Pippa Crerar, as the British prime minister argued the continent must move at pace to bolster its own defence. Starmer on Monday used a meeting of the European Political Community in Armenia to begin negotiations to participate in the EU scheme. If the UK’s effort to join the EU’s £78bn recovery loan scheme for Ukraine is successful, British defence firms would be able to provide equipment for Kyiv in return for a financial contribution of up to £400m.

Weather monitoring equipment at the illegally Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in south-eastern Ukraine was damaged in a drone strike., the International Atomic Energy Agency said on Monday.