Fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall in 2026. Why aren’t climate experts celebrating?

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to fall in 2026. The anticipated drop of 0.4 per cent comes as the expansion of renewables accelerates, backdropped by the Iran war energy crisis.

Emissions from oil are projected to decrease by 1.9 per cent, according to the 2026 Global Carbon Budget, which measures progress towards the Paris Agreement goals.

“A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” warns Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, who led the study.

But the dip in fossil fuel carbon is offset by a rise in emissions from land-use change, such as deforestation, pushing total CO2 emissions up to a projected 43.3 billion tonnes this year, from 42.8 billion in 2025.

Friedlingstein says further acceleration of renewables and electrification is needed for global emissions to peak and enter a sustained decline.

With electrification central to this week’s COP31 climate talks, global leaders are poised to commit to new targets aligning with this goal.

“At this COP, nations face a choice: electric or shock,” said UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell in his opening remarks on 9 November. “Efficient electrotech and clean energy are a vital cure for planet-heating pollution and spiraling household costs, amid the ongoing fossil fuel cost crisis.”

But experts say progress is still too slow. The remaining ‘carbon budget’ – the amount of CO2 that can be emitted before warming reaches 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – is now 150 billion tonnes, equivalent to less than four years of emissions at the current rate, according to the report.

Which countries expect the biggest drop in fossil emissions in 2026?

The EU is projected to see the steepest fall among the major emitters, at 1.5 per cent. The US follows at 1.3 per cent, mainly due to a drop in coal emissions, which spiked last year due to high gas prices and cold weather. Japan’s emissions are set to drop by one per cent.

China is projected to see a 0.9 per cent drop in 2026, thanks to a steep decline in oil emissions and strong growth in renewable electricity generation.

While the country produces 32 per cent of global fossil emissions, it is also a world leader in deploying renewables, as well as reforestation and planting new forests. Half of the global emissions avoided due to renewable energy and electric vehicles are in China.

India bucks the trend, with its emissions projected to rise by 4.4 per cent, above its 3.5 per cent average annual growth over the last decade. The rest of the world is set to see a 0.7 per cent fall, mainly due to higher oil prices and supply constraints.

The report emphasises that decarbonising doesn’t mean sacrificing economic growth: in 2025, 59 countries emitted less than they did before the COVID-19 pandemic, while their economies grew.

Can clean tech offset emissions from growing energy demand?

Two thirds of this year’s rise in global energy demand is being met by solar, wind and electric vehicles, according to the report.

An accompanying analysis by the authors projects that between now and the end of 2028, between 64 and 79 per cent of emissions from new demand will be offset by new solar, wind power and electric vehicles.

Solar and wind helped cut 4.1 billion tonnes of carbon emissions in 2025, up from just 0.28 billion tonnes in 2010. This is projected to reach 4.6 billion tonnes this year.

Electric vehicles are making headway more slowly. Only about 10 per cent of the global car fleet was electrified in 2025, or six per cent excluding hybrids, because the vehicle stock takes time to turn over.

“A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change,” says Glen Peters, research professor at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research and a member of the report’s team. He says clean technologies are pushing emissions down in dozens of countries, but not enough to lock in a global peak.

COP31 host Türkiye will push its headline ‘35-by-35’ target at the UN talks, asking countries to collectively raise the share of global energy demand met by electricity to 35 per cent, up from around 20 per cent, by 2035. Critics say the target must be met using clean energy if it is to mean anything.

A dip, not a peak in fossil fuel emissions

The picture looks different from last year, when the same report found fossil fuel emissions had hit an all-time high, rising by 1.1 per cent, with oil, gas and coal all increasing.

This year, oil is behind the decline. Emissions from oil are projected to fall by 1.9 per cent and natural gas by 0.3 per cent, while coal is set to rise by 0.6 per cent – likely a short-term response to the energy shock from the Iran conflict rather than a turning point.

Land-use emissions are moving in the opposite direction. They are projected to rise to 5.1 billion tonnes, driven by peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia linked to the onset of El Niño. The report adds that the powerful 2026 El Niño is expected to have a significant impact on the land carbon sink in the coming year.

Carbon removal is also not yet making up the difference. Reforestation and afforestation offset around half of emissions from permanent deforestation, but novel carbon dioxide removal currently offsets less than 30 minutes of annual fossil emissions, according to the report.

Still, the authors say that if the rollout of clean technology keeps accelerating, “a sustained peak and decline in global CO2 emissions could be a few years away.”