Global shock feared as Iran tightens grip on Hormuz, Qatar says impact “not far away”
“The full-fledged impact is coming” and what the world has seen until now in energy costs is "the tip of the iceberg," Qatar’s finance minister says, warning of wider energy and supply shock as Iran tightens control over Hormuz.
Qatar is warning that the global economy is heading for a deeper shock in the coming months as the Strait of Hormuz standoff intensifies and that the current energy crisis the world has seen so far is "the tip of the iceberg".
Speaking at the International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings in Washington this week, Qatar's Finance Minister Ali bin Ahmed Al Kuwari said the full impact of the conflict could be felt in the next couple of months if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
“The full-fledged impact is coming,” he said, warning the crisis could shift from rising prices to actual shortages of energy and critical commodities.
His comments come as tensions around Hormuz escalate, with shipping flows still disrupted despite intermittent ceasefire signals and competing claims over whether the route is fully open.
From price spike to global shortages
Al Kuwari said the world will soon face an “energy availability” problem, where even countries able to pay higher prices struggle to secure supply.
Around a third of global fertiliser trade passes through Hormuz, raising the risk of disrupted planting seasons and a wider food crisis.
Qatar, which accounts for roughly 30% of global helium supply, also said shortages could hit healthcare and semiconductor industries.
“If the situation continues, you’ll see a huge economic impact,” the minister said, pointing to knock-on effects across supply chains and key sectors.
The Strait of Hormuz carries around a fifth of global energy supplies.
Traffic has been disrupted since the start of the conflict, with attacks on shipping and competing military measures creating uncertainty over safe passage.
International institutions warn prolonged disruption could push the global economy toward recession, adding to inflation and tighter financial conditions.
Qatar absorbs impact as global risks grow
Inside Qatar, the impact is already visible at key energy facilities. The Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facility, one of the world’s largest, was severely damaged during the conflict, knocking out around 17% of the country’s export capacity and adding to the global gas supply crunch.
Repairs could take up to five years, highlighting the long-term impact.
Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, meaning prolonged outages will continue to ripple across international markets.
Despite the stark global warning, Al Kuwari took a more reassuring tone on Qatar’s domestic outlook.
He said the country has sufficient financial buffers to absorb the immediate impact, including a government “shock fund” that can support the economy for months, alongside deep sovereign reserves.
Authorities are also preparing targeted support for sectors such as aviation, tourism and manufacturing, which have been hit by the disruption.
“The full-fledged impact is coming,” Al Kuwari said. “It is not far away.”
For Qatar, the message is clear: the worst has not yet arrived.
Unless stability returns to Hormuz, the shock is likely to deepen in the coming months.
