Iran, tech and Trump to top Macron's G7 summit
Heads of state from the G7 are bracing themselves for the arrival of US President Donald Trump at the first day of a major summit in Évian-les-Bains, with an agenda bogged down in geopolitics, AI, and the news of a potential breakthrough in the war in Iran.
Technology and geopolitics will dominate the G7 summit in Évian, where host Emmanuel Macron will seek to paper over divisions between the group and the United States.
Leaders will gather for a three-day summit in Évian-les-Bains, a resort town on the shores of Lake Geneva, aiming to forge common positions on how to end the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East and the development of safer technologies.
Many on the sidelines of the summit had hoped the three-day gathering would help pave the way for an end to the Iran war, but those expectations were upended late Sunday when US President Donald Trump announced that a deal had been brokered to end the 15-week conflict.
“Ships of the World, start your engines," Trump said in a social media post celebrating the deal, which he said would pave the way for the US ending its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a major energy corridor that previously catered to 20% of the world's oil.
Germany, France, the UK and Italy released a statement welcoming the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, and the clear "diplomatic breakthrough".
"The resumption of maritime traffic, without restriction or toll, is an indispensable condition for regional stability and the global economy," Macron wrote on social media platform X.
"This agreement also paves the way for comprehensive negotiations in service of peace and security for all in the Middle East. These must address concerns related to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic programs, as well as its policy of regional destabilisation."
Geopolitics at the G7
Before the summit, one senior EU official speaking on condition of anonymity said that the G7 leaders expected an update from Trump on the conflict in the Middle East and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The American president has played a central role in both crises, first pledging and failing to end Russia's invasion of Ukraine within 24-hours of taking office at the beginning of his second mandate — and starting another war in Iran thereafter.
Trump’s first face-to-face meeting will be with Macron on Monday night, hours after landing in Europe, with the pair expected to discuss both issues.
A French official said Europe's position has been clear, and was centred on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. "This war must end, and this includes the whole region, including Lebanon,” another EU official said.
US and Israeli attacks on Iran and Lebanon since February have battered energy infrastructure and blocked the strait, sending the price of crude skyrocketing while leaving Europe lurching for other energy sources.
But divisions could flare again, with NATO allies also criticised by Trump for their limited involvement in the conflict.
One senior EU official said that the G7 format is conducive for free-flowing conversation, and the focus will be on what "unites" leaders from the world’s largest industrial economies — rather than what divides them.
A voice from the region is expected to be Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who—if he accepts Macron’s invitation—would become the first Syrian leader ever to attend a G7 summit.
Zelenskyy to make an appearance
Various officials have said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s presence is intended to examine whether fruitful negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin could be possible to end the bloodshed, as the invasion enters its fifth year.
It comes after weeks of chatter within Brussels about whether there is appetite to appoint a European envoy to represent the continent during potential peace talks.
This conversation has been routinely shut down by the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, arguing it is up to Europe to ensure that Ukraine is in the best possible position when and if the Kremlin wants to negotiate.
Another major question will be what it takes for Europe to help Ukraine find an end to the war, particularly about whether allied support can shift from something temporary to concrete security guarantees.
“Just, sustainable and lasting peace is required,” one EU official said.
AI in the crosshairs
French diplomats say artificial intelligence will feature high on the agenda, with leading Silicon Valley executives invited to a working lunch focused on what organisers have described as "the safe, rapid and effective deployment of artificial intelligence".
Sam Altman of OpenAI, Dario Amodei of Anthropic and Arthur Mensch of Mistral will take part alongside eight other technology industry representatives.
The meeting comes after the US government issued a directive last week ordering Anthropic to restrict foreign nationals’ access to its most advanced AI models citing national security concerns. The restrictions apply to Fable 5 and Mythos 5.
Anthropic said it would have to “disable” the technology to comply with US regulations. Some commentators have described the move as a “kill switch” for the technology.
A European Commission spokesperson said US export controls should not be “discriminatory” towards partners, adding that the issue is likely to come up at the G7.
The China conundrum
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is expected to be consulted by the G7 for her expertise regarding how to counter Chinese trade pressure tactics. The assembly of leaders — which includes Germany, France, Italy, Canada, the US, the UK, and Japan — comprise 45% of global GDP at market prices.
EU officials stressed the need to discuss "microeconomics", how to address the bloc's ballooning trade deficit with Beijing, but also how Tokyo has managed to fend off similar trade spats.
The timing is opportune, as European heads of state will gather on Thursday in Brussels for high-level talks on how to speak to the Asian giant while addressing overcapacity issues and unfair subsidies.
However, the G7 summit will not be solely focused on the elephant in the room. "One important deliverable is to bring China into the dialogue," one EU official said.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping is expected to attend the upcoming G20 format, where the matter will be revisited again.
