‘So hacked off’: as election nears, New Zealanders despair at the main parties – and Opportunity knocks

For decades, Mattie Wall mainly voted for Labour, one of New Zealand’s two major political parties. A former diplomat and project manager, the South Island-based retiree felt that the party with working class origins aligned with what was important to her: a thriving country, and the environment.

This year she is among the New Zealanders who are peeling away from the Labour and National parties – which swing in and out of power every few terms – to vote for an untested party that has never held a parliamentary seat.

“In the past, I didn’t feel the frustration I do now with politics,” said Wall, 76. “I’m so hacked off with both parties, with all parties really. We’ve got Trump 2.0, AI’s sudden [surge], increasing climate change impact – what are we waiting for, revolution or societal collapse? Clinging to the old ways ain’t gonna cut it.”

As New Zealand prepares for an election in November, Wall is among the roughly 5-8% of people according to recent polls who plan to vote for relative newcomers the Opportunity party. For her, its policies, including a land tax and a $370 a week universal basic income, represent pragmatism; a shake-up, but a sensible one. She is also impressed by Opportunity’s leader, businesswoman Qiulae Wong. “She’s intelligent, thoughtful, moderate, unpretentious, she speaks lay language and she’s a realist.”

Wong, 38, is a sustainability consultant and mother-of-two from Auckland who returned to New Zealand in 2022 after almost a decade working in London. Asked to define Opportunity, she said it looked to “market-driven solutions” while being committed to a low-emission future and evidence-based policy.

The apparent rise of Opportunity – a self-described centrist party started three elections ago by economist and philanthropist Gareth Morgan – has injected an unexpected element of drama into the election race. The contest features a weakening right bloc, with National’s polling flagging at about 29%. National and Labour are seeing their lowest combined support in 30 years, mirroring an international trend of minor parties gaining votes and influence.

Polls have Opportunity winning more than the 5% threshold of seats needed to enter parliament under New Zealand’s mixed member proportional (MMP) system. It means Opportunity could get to choose who governs. Christopher Luxon, the National leader and prime minister, has ruled out working with Opportunity.

The Post newspaper reported Opportunity looks set to nab votes from right and left, with 20% of respondents voting National at the last election, 17% Labour, 12% the Greens and 8% NZ First. A quarter had last voted for Opportunity.

Some put the shift down to a kind of mainstream malaise in New Zealand politics. “Voters are less attached to parties than they used to be, and they’re more likely to shop around during elections,” said Massey University political scientist Richard Shaw. “They’re peeling off from everywhere; people’s attachment to parties is more elastic and the deep tribalism has gone.”

Voters spoken to by the Guardian reflected this sentiment. “I don’t understand how a lot of people are surviving right now and that’s what drives my vote,” said Wellingtonian Gemma, 41, a former Green voter who will vote Opportunity for the first time. “Things can’t keep going in this direction.”

‘Somewhere in the middle’

Wong, the Opportunity leader, told the Guardian that polling was better than hoped but the party took nothing for granted. People told her they were fed up with “pendulum politics” – different governments coming into power and undoing the work of the last government at great cost. “They’re looking for something different because they’re frustrated, particularly with Labour and National for not having any big ideas or stable leadership to tackle some of the biggest challenges that we’re facing as a country.”

Wong said Opportunity would work with either party. New Zealanders needed stability when it came to climate legislation, healthcare funding models, and the education curriculum, she said. “It’s that back and forth which seems to be really holding us back in all aspects of New Zealand society … the solution is often somewhere in the middle.”

Responding to criticism of Opportunity’s land tax proposal as untenable and liable to create fresh inequalities – the former Labour leader Helen Clark calls it “fantasy posing as policy” – Wong said the economy had to change and 70% of New Zealanders would be better off under the plan. It would introduce a tax of 1.75% on urban and 0.5% on rural land, is modelled to pull in NZ$24bn which would be used for the ‘citizen’s income,’ and is designed to drive house prices down by 10-15%.

She did not expect it to happen immediately. “I’m realistic that as a new party coming into parliament demanding tax reform overnight is pretty unlikely. If we can get around the table with the other parties, there’s elements of this that will appeal to both the left and the right. It’s about supporting people who really need it.”

Politics in New Zealand has historically been a two-party duopoly. Previously, the first past the post (FPP) voting system allowed parties to more easily win the majority of the house and govern alone.

Since the introduction of New Zealand’s MMP system in 1996, voters get a party and an electorate vote. The first mainly determines how many seats a party gets in parliament. With 51% needed for a clear win, small parties often hold the balance of power. At the 2023 election, centre-right National got 38% of the vote, meaning it needed the New Zealand First and Act parties to form a coalition government.

In August, Luxon said on Newstalk ZB that he was open to holding a referendum on MMP, saying he wanted as many National ministers in cabinet as possible for a stable government, and not some “yahoo or numpty”. He denied he was talking about his current coalition partners, but many saw it as his growing frustration at managing them. He later told the Post it would be a “check-in” on democracy, as well as gauging support for a four-year governmental term.

Shaw said the halcyon days for major parties had passed, and both Luxon and Labour party leader Chris Hipkins would be feeling the pressure of declining support. “They’re not the most successful any more, partly because of MMP but just because people shop around way more and the base vote for National and Labour is never going to be at 40% ever again.” Smaller parties were eating into major party territory. For example, the David Seymour-led Act party, with 0.5% of the vote in 2017, had received $1.8m in donations this year – just behind National – and was polling at 9%.

With its positioning, Opportunity could continue to gain votes from everywhere – even if their centrism was a tactic, he said. “They’re quite clearly soft-left, they’re using the language of reconciliation and evidence and appealing to a different kind of political DNA in people and they’re resonating. They could absolutely kick on.”

Still, some will always play it safe. Christine Hands, 77, who voted Labour in her first election in 1972, and for Jacinda Ardern twice, would never vote for a minority party. “I’ve never been a splinter party person. I’ll vote for National or Labour, depending on which is best for the country.” This time, for her, that’s National; a safe pair of hands who “haven’t mucked things up too much”.

As for Opportunity? “I can see they’re quite charming, and people are thinking ‘a plague on both parties’, but their policies are as mad as a meat axe,” she said. “Then again, we survive everything. We always have.”